Winter Outlook Report 2021/22 and Summer Review 2021

Executive Summary

Winter Outlook 2021–2022 shows, overall, no risk to electric security of supply this winter. In France, risks are observed in January and February in the event of extreme cold weather events. Risks in Ireland are driven by generation planned outages and aging conventional power plants, which presents a higher probability of unplanned outages. There is an evident need to rely on non-market resources in Malta, which should be sufficient to cope with operational challenges and supply shortages.

The Winter Outlook is accompanied by a retrospect of last summer. Last summer (June to September 2021) temperatures in Europe were considerably warmer than the 1991–2020 average in June and July and close to the 1991–2020 average in August and September. No adequacy issues were recorded as extreme weather events were generally absent and supply margins were sufficient to cover demand.

Previous Outlooks

Methodology

Methodology for Short-term and Seasonal Adequacy Assessments

The Summer Outlook 2020 uses an upgraded adequacy assessment methodology that is in line with the EU regulation on risk preparedness in the electricity sector.

Read the methodology

Special Reports

Managing critical grid situations - Success and Challenges

The report looks at the consequences on systems and markets in the most impacted countries. If the report shows good cooperation notably through Regional Service Coordinators in Western Europe, the cooperation in South East Europe seems to have suffered from a lack of policy and regulatory alignment.

The report lists a series of recommendations like the enhancement of the methodology used in Outlooks to cover more adequacy risks. Today the methodology is not able to forecast situations like the South East Europe January 2017 cold spell. ENTSO-E is committed to make these improvements in time for the next winter outlook.

On net generating capacity, the decrease of fossil fuel (except gas) and the increase in wind and solar is confirmed compared to last summer.

Read Managing critical grid situations - Success and Challenges​​

Annex - A market analysis of the January 2017 cold spell in Europe

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