ENTSO-E
Winter Outlook Report 2021/22 and Summer Review 2021
Executive Summary
Winter Outlook 2021–2022 shows, overall, no risk to electric security of supply this winter. In France, risks are observed in January and February in the event of extreme cold weather events. Risks in Ireland are driven by generation planned outages and aging conventional power plants, which presents a higher probability of unplanned outages. There is an evident need to rely on non-market resources in Malta, which should be sufficient to cope with operational challenges and supply shortages.
The Winter Outlook is accompanied by a retrospect of last summer. Last summer (June to September 2021) temperatures in Europe were considerably warmer than the 1991–2020 average in June and July and close to the 1991–2020 average in August and September. No adequacy issues were recorded as extreme weather events were generally absent and supply margins were sufficient to cover demand.
Previous Outlooks
Summer Outlook Reports
- Summer Outlook Report 2021 and Winter Review 2020/21
- Summer Outlook Report 2020 and Winter Review
- Country Comments
- Supply data
- Transfer Capacities dataset
- PECD Wind Offshore
- PECD Wind Onshore
- PECD Solar
- Hydro modelling data
- Demand dataset
- Summer Outlook Report 2019 and Winter Review
- Input dataset Summer 2019
- Summer Outlook Report 2018 and Winter Review
- Input dataset Summer 2018
- Summer Outlook Report 2017 and Winter Review
- Input dataset Summer 2017
- Summer Outlook Report 2016 and Winter Review
- Summer Outlook Report 2015 and Winter Review
- Summer Outlook Report 2014 and Winter Review
- Summer Outlook Report 2013 and Winter Review
- Summer Outlook Report 2012 and Winter Review
- Summer Outlook Report 2011 and Winter Review
- Summer Outlook Report 2009 and Winter Review
- Summer Outlook Report 2009 and Winter Review
Winter Outlook Reports
- Winter Outlook Report 2020/21 and Summer Review 2020
- Winter Outlook Report 2019/20 and Summer Review 2019
- Input dataset Winter 2019/20
- Winter Outlook Report 2018/19 and Summer Review 2018
- Input dataset Winter 2018/19
- Winter Outlook Report 2017/18 and Summer Review 2017
- Input dataset Winter 2017/18
- Winter Outlook Report 2016/17 and Summer Review 2016
- Input dataset Winter 2016/17
- Winter Outlook Report 2015/16 and Summer Review 2015
- Input dataset Winter 2015/16
- Winter Outlook Report 2014/15 and Summer Review 2014
- Winter Outlook Report 2013/14 and Summer Review
- Winter Outlook Report 2012/13 and Summer Review
- Winter Outlook Report 2011/12 and Summer Review
- Winter Outlook Report 2010/11 and Summer Review
- Winter Outlook Report 2009/10 and Summer Review
Methodology
Methodology for Short-term and Seasonal Adequacy Assessments
The Summer Outlook 2020 uses an upgraded adequacy assessment methodology that is in line with the EU regulation on risk preparedness in the electricity sector.
Special Reports
Managing critical grid situations - Success and Challenges
The report looks at the consequences on systems and markets in the most impacted countries. If the report shows good cooperation notably through Regional Service Coordinators in Western Europe, the cooperation in South East Europe seems to have suffered from a lack of policy and regulatory alignment.
The report lists a series of recommendations like the enhancement of the methodology used in Outlooks to cover more adequacy risks. Today the methodology is not able to forecast situations like the South East Europe January 2017 cold spell. ENTSO-E is committed to make these improvements in time for the next winter outlook.
On net generating capacity, the decrease of fossil fuel (except gas) and the increase in wind and solar is confirmed compared to last summer.
Read Managing critical grid situations - Success and Challenges
Annex - A market analysis of the January 2017 cold spell in Europe
