Winter Outlook Report 2020/21 and Summer Review 2020

Executive Summary

The ENTSO-E Winter Outlook 2020–2021 does not report any major adequacy risk Europe this winter. Possible risks of supply shortage in Denmark, Finland, France and Malta have been identified but most of these risks can be addressed with available non-market resources. Some risks remain in France and exceptional operational measures might be necessary in the event of a cold spell combined with low generation availability.

The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to reduce demand throughout Europe. However, the rescheduling of some planned powerplant outages could in some cases outweigh the demand decrease.

Webinar

ENTSO-E and ENTSOG hosted on 1 December a webinar to present the results of their Winter Outlooks 2020/2021.

Download the webinar slides

Previous Outlooks

Methodology

Methodology for Short-term and Seasonal Adequacy Assessments

The Summer Outlook 2020 uses an upgraded adequacy assessment methodology that is in line with the EU regulation on risk preparedness in the electricity sector.

Read the methodology

Special Reports

Managing critical grid situations - Success and Challenges

The report looks at the consequences on systems and markets in the most impacted countries. If the report shows good cooperation notably through Regional Service Coordinators in Western Europe, the cooperation in South East Europe seems to have suffered from a lack of policy and regulatory alignment.

The report lists a series of recommendations like the enhancement of the methodology used in Outlooks to cover more adequacy risks. Today the methodology is not able to forecast situations like the South East Europe January 2017 cold spell. ENTSO-E is committed to make these improvements in time for the next winter outlook.

On net generating capacity, the decrease of fossil fuel (except gas) and the increase in wind and solar is confirmed compared to last summer.

Read Managing critical grid situations - Success and Challenges​​

Annex - A market analysis of the January 2017 cold spell in Europe

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