Summer Outlook 2019

Executive Summary

ENTSO-E’s Summer Outlook has not identified any specific risk for security of electricity supply for the summer 2019. In general, the system adequacy assessment for this summer has even improved compared to the same period last year. A detailed probabilistic assessment of week 30 (the most constrained week), from 22 to 28 July, confirms these findings.

Total net generation capacity increase in Europe more than doubled between what was recorded in the Summer Outlook 2018 (+/- 11GW) and what is recorded in this year’s edition (+/-23 GW). This is explained by increased growth of renewable generation capacity and growth of some thermal technology. Coal generation capacity shows a continuous decrease.

Hydro reservoirs levels are close to the historical average in most of the countries assessed. In France and Italy, reservoir levels are between historical average and minimum levels. Normal hydrological conditions are expected this summer because of the accumulation of snow in the Alps. Switzerland saw higher than normal precipitations and mild weather in the winter 2018/2019, and the level of its reservoirs are above average. As usual, the Summer Outlook is combined with a review of Winter 2018/2019 that was overall marked by mild weather conditions Despite concerns due to delayed nuclear maintenance and slightly lower temperatures than average, no adequacy issues were recorded in Belgium last winter.

Special Reports

Managing critical grid situations - Success and Challenges

The report looks at the consequences on systems and markets in the most impacted countries. If the report shows good cooperation notably through Regional Service Coordinators in Western Europe, the cooperation in South East Europe seems to have suffered from a lack of policy and regulatory alignment.

The report lists a series of recommendations like the enhancement of the methodology used in Outlooks to cover more adequacy risks. Today the methodology is not able to forecast situations like the South East Europe January 2017 cold spell. ENTSO-E is committed to make these improvements in time for the next winter outlook.

On net generating capacity, the decrease of fossil fuel (except gas) and the increase in wind and solar is confirmed compared to last summer.

Read Managing critical grid situations - Success and Challenges​​

Annex - A market analysis of the January 2017 cold spell in Europe

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