ENTSO-E
Winter Outlook Report 2020/21 and Summer Review 2020
Executive Summary
The ENTSO-E Winter Outlook 2020–2021 does not report any major adequacy risk Europe this winter. Possible risks of supply shortage in Denmark, Finland, France and Malta have been identified but most of these risks can be addressed with available non-market resources. Some risks remain in France and exceptional operational measures might be necessary in the event of a cold spell combined with low generation availability.
The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to reduce demand throughout Europe. However, the rescheduling of some planned powerplant outages could in some cases outweigh the demand decrease.
Webinar
ENTSO-E and ENTSOG hosted on 1 December a webinar to present the results of their Winter Outlooks 2020/2021.
Downloads
Reports
Input Data
- Supply data
Supply related data - NGCs, outages, etc - Transfer Capacities dataset
Expected transfer capacities between study zones. Unplanned outages are not represented - PECD Wind Offshore
Generation time series. - PECD Wind Onshore
Generation time series. - PECD Solar
Generation time series. - Hydro modelling data
Hydro modelling related data - Demand dataset
Expected electricity demand data. Pre-COVID assumptions - Availability Climate Dependent Other NonRES
Previous Outlooks
Summer Outlook Reports
- Summer Outlook Report 2020 and Winter Review
- Summer Outlook Report 2019 and Winter Review
- Input dataset Summer 2019
- Summer Outlook Report 2018 and Winter Review
- Input dataset Summer 2018
- Summer Outlook Report 2017 and Winter Review
- Input dataset Summer 2017
- Summer Outlook Report 2016 and Winter Review
- Summer Outlook Report 2015 and Winter Review
- Summer Outlook Report 2014 and Winter Review
- Summer Outlook Report 2013 and Winter Review
- Summer Outlook Report 2012 and Winter Review
- Summer Outlook Report 2011 and Winter Review
- Summer Outlook Report 2009 and Winter Review
- Summer Outlook Report 2009 and Winter Review
Winter Outlook Reports
- Winter Outlook Report 2019/20 and Summer Review 2019
- Input dataset Winter 2019/20
- Winter Outlook Report 2018/19 and Summer Review 2018
- Input dataset Winter 2018/19
- Winter Outlook Report 2017/18 and Summer Review 2017
- Input dataset Winter 2017/18
- Winter Outlook Report 2016/17 and Summer Review 2016
- Input dataset Winter 2016/17
- Winter Outlook Report 2015/16 and Summer Review 2015
- Input dataset Winter 2015/16
- Winter Outlook Report 2014/15 and Summer Review 2014
- Winter Outlook Report 2013/14 and Summer Review
- Winter Outlook Report 2012/13 and Summer Review
- Winter Outlook Report 2011/12 and Summer Review
- Winter Outlook Report 2010/11 and Summer Review
- Winter Outlook Report 2009/10 and Summer Review
Methodology
Methodology for Short-term and Seasonal Adequacy Assessments
The Summer Outlook 2020 uses an upgraded adequacy assessment methodology that is in line with the EU regulation on risk preparedness in the electricity sector.
Special Reports
Managing critical grid situations - Success and Challenges
The report looks at the consequences on systems and markets in the most impacted countries. If the report shows good cooperation notably through Regional Service Coordinators in Western Europe, the cooperation in South East Europe seems to have suffered from a lack of policy and regulatory alignment.
The report lists a series of recommendations like the enhancement of the methodology used in Outlooks to cover more adequacy risks. Today the methodology is not able to forecast situations like the South East Europe January 2017 cold spell. ENTSO-E is committed to make these improvements in time for the next winter outlook.
On net generating capacity, the decrease of fossil fuel (except gas) and the increase in wind and solar is confirmed compared to last summer.
Read Managing critical grid situations - Success and Challenges
Annex - A market analysis of the January 2017 cold spell in Europe
