Winter Outlook 2023-2024

Summer Review 2023

Executive Summary

ENTSO-E Winter Outlook 2023-2024: improved adequacy outlook compared with 2022-2023 with limited electricity supply risks in remote areas. European TSOs continue to monitor the adequacy situation throughout the winter period.

Only some risks of electricity supply in remote areas including Ireland, Northern Ireland, Malta and Cyprus. All the risks identified for the next winter season are driven by weather conditions in combination with other adverse factors. Dedicated non-market resources would help to alleviate those risks in Ireland and Malta.

Webinar Recording

Your Questions, Our Answers

  • What is the Winter Outlook?

    ENTSO-E’s Seasonal Outlooks investigate at pan-European level the security of electricity supply ahead of each winter and summer period. They are released twice a year with a Summer Outlook in June and a Winter Outlook in December. The role of the Outlooks is to identify when and where system adequacy – the balance between supply and demand for electricity – is at risk. Outlooks are not forecasts of the future. Rather, they identify potential vulnerabilities for the upcoming season which can be addressed proactively with preparation or mitigation measures.

    The Outlooks are the product of cooperation between 40 European electricity TSOs. Because of their pan-European scope, the Outlooks complement the analysis carried out in national and regional assessments, which provide a more detailed picture of adequacy at local level. They promote cooperation across Europe and between regional and national stakeholders.

    Performing the Seasonal Outlooks (Seasonal Adequacy Assessments) is one of ENTSO-E’s legal mandates as specified in the Clean Energy Package and as defined in Article 9 of the Risk Preparedness Regulation (Regulation (EU) 2019/941). ENTSO-E performs this assessment to inform national authorities, TSOs and relevant stakeholders of the potential risks related to the security of electricity supply in the coming season. The Seasonal Outlooks reflect the implementation of the methodology as developed by ENTSO-E as per Article 8 of the Risk Preparedness Regulation and as approved by ACER on 6 March 2020. Earlier Seasonal Outlooks (published before 2020) follow another deterministic approach.

  • Does the Winter Outlook consider the probability and impact of a cold spell?

    The Winter Outlook considers multiple possibilities regarding weather and temperature, which can impact generation (e.g. more or less wind) and consumption of electricity (e.g. heating). Our simulations are performed for multiple so-called ‘climate years’. These cover 34 past winter patterns to capture sufficient spread of possible winter scenarios. In these historical climate data, the temperatures were detrended to account for climate change. Also, multiple hydro samples are used, from a wet to a very dry season. This allows us to take into consideration a variety of weather conditions, including cold spells. The results presented in the Winter Outlook are an average of many different possible weather conditions.

  • How does the Winter Outlook consider gas fuel supply uncertainty?

    ENTSO-E assesses European critical dependency on gas supply by identifying the Critical Gas Volume (CGV). It is assessed considering various climatic patterns. CGV refers to the lowest volumes of gas absolutely needed for electricity generation using all market resources even in the most adverse combination of climate conditions and outages. With this analysis, ENTSO-E estimates how much gas may be needed to maintain electricity adequacy in Europe and for each week of the coming winter. Gas is always considered last in the merit order both in the reference scenario and in the sensitivities assessed. In a market context this means gas generation is the price setter in the wholesale market, but what is most important for an adequacy analysis this means the analysis inherently assumes all other resources are deployed first in the market before calling on gas power generation.

    The findings show that gas remains important to maintain adequacy of the power system in Europe this winter and in the absence of new measures and investments also in coming years. The reliance on gas generation in Europe has decreased by 10% compared with last winter.

  • How are ENTSO-E neighbouring countries considered in the Seasonal Outlook?

    The interconnected system is a key resource for wider system adequacy. ENTSO-E’s Seasonal Outlook gives results for all ENTSO-E member systems. Data inputs and assumptions from neighbouring interconnected countries are also integrated into the modelling. As in every Outlook, data is collected for Turkey and included in the assessment as a market zone. The system of Great Britain is strongly interconnected in the North Sea region and a dedicated collaboration is set up with National Grid ESO to exchange data. Other neighbouring systems are modelled in a simplified manner by fixed flows or assuming zero flows for the purpose of identifying adequacy risks.

    Ukraine and Moldova provided their national perspective on the situation in their power system.

Previous Outlooks


Methodology for Short-term and Seasonal Adequacy Assessments

The Summer Outlook 2020 uses an upgraded adequacy assessment methodology that is in line with the EU regulation on risk preparedness in the electricity sector.

Read the methodology

Special Reports

Managing critical grid situations - Success and Challenges

The report looks at the consequences on systems and markets in the most impacted countries. If the report shows good cooperation notably through Regional Service Coordinators in Western Europe, the cooperation in South East Europe seems to have suffered from a lack of policy and regulatory alignment.

The report lists a series of recommendations like the enhancement of the methodology used in Outlooks to cover more adequacy risks. Today the methodology is not able to forecast situations like the South East Europe January 2017 cold spell. ENTSO-E is committed to make these improvements in time for the next winter outlook.

On net generating capacity, the decrease of fossil fuel (except gas) and the increase in wind and solar is confirmed compared to last summer.

Read Managing critical grid situations - Success and Challenges​​

Annex - A market analysis of the January 2017 cold spell in Europe

View original news release →