Summer Outlook Report 2022
and Winter Review 2021-2022

Executive Summary

Gas shortage for electricity generation is unlikely during the summer, even in the event of Russian gas disruption based on the ENTSOG summer outlook and on the results of a survey performed by ENTSO-E TSOs. The gas and hydro storage accumulation are important for coming winter and will be thoroughly monitored during the summer. Significant volume of gas is needed for electricity adequacy in winter 2022-2023, however gas consumption for electricity generation could decrease by a certain degree. The dependency on Russian gas for electricity generation varies considerably across Europe.

Summer Outlook 2022 shows risks in islands (Creta, Cyprus, Malta) in summer 2022. These risks are either minor or non-market resources are available to address these situations. Traces of risk are noted in mainland Greece but only under extreme adverse conditions (high electricity demand combined with low resource availability). Furthermore, some risks are also noted in Ireland and Eastern Denmark due to planned outages of network and generation, but only in worst-case operational conditions (high electricity consumption combined with low renewable generation and numerous generators being on unplanned outage). In such cases, the TSOs remain vigilant and may adapt planned outage schedules closer to real time operations.

Previous Outlooks

Methodology

Methodology for Short-term and Seasonal Adequacy Assessments

The Summer Outlook 2020 uses an upgraded adequacy assessment methodology that is in line with the EU regulation on risk preparedness in the electricity sector.

Read the methodology

Special Reports

Managing critical grid situations - Success and Challenges

The report looks at the consequences on systems and markets in the most impacted countries. If the report shows good cooperation notably through Regional Service Coordinators in Western Europe, the cooperation in South East Europe seems to have suffered from a lack of policy and regulatory alignment.

The report lists a series of recommendations like the enhancement of the methodology used in Outlooks to cover more adequacy risks. Today the methodology is not able to forecast situations like the South East Europe January 2017 cold spell. ENTSO-E is committed to make these improvements in time for the next winter outlook.

On net generating capacity, the decrease of fossil fuel (except gas) and the increase in wind and solar is confirmed compared to last summer.

Read Managing critical grid situations - Success and Challenges​​

Annex - A market analysis of the January 2017 cold spell in Europe

View original news release →

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