Winter Outlook 2019/2020

Executive Summary

ENTSO-E’s Winter Outlook 2019/2020, finds that Europe’s supply of electricity is secured under normal conditions. In case of extreme cold spells – that is temperatures 10 degrees below average - combined with unforeseen outages and low renewable generation,ENTSO-E’s analysis indicates potential risks in Belgium and France for January 2020.

Under these extreme conditions, both countries would heavily rely on imports and, in some cases, on available out-of-market measures. In addition, a tighter monitoring of system security would be required with the support of Regional Security Coordinators. The Outlook notes that renewable generation capacity increased in 2019 at the same pace as in 2018. Non-renewable generation capacity continued to decrease but slower than in 2018.

Special Reports

Managing critical grid situations - Success and Challenges

The report looks at the consequences on systems and markets in the most impacted countries. If the report shows good cooperation notably through Regional Service Coordinators in Western Europe, the cooperation in South East Europe seems to have suffered from a lack of policy and regulatory alignment.

The report lists a series of recommendations like the enhancement of the methodology used in Outlooks to cover more adequacy risks. Today the methodology is not able to forecast situations like the South East Europe January 2017 cold spell. ENTSO-E is committed to make these improvements in time for the next winter outlook.

On net generating capacity, the decrease of fossil fuel (except gas) and the increase in wind and solar is confirmed compared to last summer.

Read Managing critical grid situations - Success and Challenges​​

Annex - A market analysis of the January 2017 cold spell in Europe

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