ENTSO-E
Summer Outlook Report 2022 and Winter Review 2021-2022
Executive Summary
Gas shortage for electricity generation is unlikely during the summer, even in the event of Russian gas disruption based on the ENTSOG summer outlook and on the results of a survey performed by ENTSO-E TSOs. The gas and hydro storage accumulation are important for coming winter and will be thoroughly monitored during the summer. Significant volume of gas is needed for electricity adequacy in winter 2022-2023, however gas consumption for electricity generation could decrease by a certain degree. The dependency on Russian gas for electricity generation varies considerably across Europe.
Summer Outlook 2022 shows risks in islands (Creta, Cyprus, Malta) in summer 2022. These risks are either minor or non-market resources are available to address these situations. Traces of risk are noted in mainland Greece but only under extreme adverse conditions (high electricity demand combined with low resource availability). Furthermore, some risks are also noted in Ireland and Eastern Denmark due to planned outages of network and generation, but only in worst-case operational conditions (high electricity consumption combined with low renewable generation and numerous generators being on unplanned outage). In such cases, the TSOs remain vigilant and may adapt planned outage schedules closer to real time operations.
Downloads
Reports
Input Data
- Demand Time Series 2022 National Trends for consultation [84 MB]
- Hydro Data SOR 2022 [8 MB]
- PECD CSP no Storage 2022 edition [43 MB]
- PECD LF Solar PV 2022 edition [320 MB]
- PECD Wind Offshore 2022 edition [132 MB]
- PECD Wind Onshore 2022 edition [567 MB]
- Supply SOR 2022 [0.6 MB]
- Transfer Capacities SO 2022 [8 MB]
Previous Outlooks
Summer Outlook Reports
- Summer Outlook Report 2021 and Winter Review 2020/21
- Summer Outlook Report 2020 and Winter Review
- Country Comments
- Supply data
- Transfer Capacities dataset
- PECD Wind Offshore
- PECD Wind Onshore
- PECD Solar
- Hydro modelling data
- Demand dataset
- Summer Outlook Report 2019 and Winter Review
- Input dataset Summer 2019
- Summer Outlook Report 2018 and Winter Review
- Input dataset Summer 2018
- Summer Outlook Report 2017 and Winter Review
- Input dataset Summer 2017
- Summer Outlook Report 2016 and Winter Review
- Summer Outlook Report 2015 and Winter Review
- Summer Outlook Report 2014 and Winter Review
- Summer Outlook Report 2013 and Winter Review
- Summer Outlook Report 2012 and Winter Review
- Summer Outlook Report 2011 and Winter Review
- Summer Outlook Report 2009 and Winter Review
- Summer Outlook Report 2009 and Winter Review
Winter Outlook Reports
- Winter Outlook Report 2021/22 and Summer Review 2021
- Winter Outlook Report 2020/21 and Summer Review 2020
- Winter Outlook Report 2020/21 Country comments
- Supply data
- Transfer Capacities dataset
- PECD Wind Offshore
- PECD Wind Onshore
- PECD Solar
- Hydro modelling data
- Demand dataset
- Availability Climate Dependent Other NonRES
- Winter Outlook Report 2019/20 and Summer Review 2019
- Input dataset Winter 2019/20
- Winter Outlook Report 2018/19 and Summer Review 2018
- Input dataset Winter 2018/19
- Winter Outlook Report 2017/18 and Summer Review 2017
- Input dataset Winter 2017/18
- Winter Outlook Report 2016/17 and Summer Review 2016
- Input dataset Winter 2016/17
- Winter Outlook Report 2015/16 and Summer Review 2015
- Input dataset Winter 2015/16
- Winter Outlook Report 2014/15 and Summer Review 2014
- Winter Outlook Report 2013/14 and Summer Review
- Winter Outlook Report 2012/13 and Summer Review
- Winter Outlook Report 2011/12 and Summer Review
- Winter Outlook Report 2010/11 and Summer Review
- Winter Outlook Report 2009/10 and Summer Review
Methodology
Methodology for Short-term and Seasonal Adequacy Assessments
The Summer Outlook 2020 uses an upgraded adequacy assessment methodology that is in line with the EU regulation on risk preparedness in the electricity sector.
Special Reports
Managing critical grid situations - Success and Challenges
The report looks at the consequences on systems and markets in the most impacted countries. If the report shows good cooperation notably through Regional Service Coordinators in Western Europe, the cooperation in South East Europe seems to have suffered from a lack of policy and regulatory alignment.
The report lists a series of recommendations like the enhancement of the methodology used in Outlooks to cover more adequacy risks. Today the methodology is not able to forecast situations like the South East Europe January 2017 cold spell. ENTSO-E is committed to make these improvements in time for the next winter outlook.
On net generating capacity, the decrease of fossil fuel (except gas) and the increase in wind and solar is confirmed compared to last summer.
Read Managing critical grid situations - Success and Challenges
Annex - A market analysis of the January 2017 cold spell in Europe