Summer Outlook 2020 and Winter Review 2019/20

Executive Summary

The ENTSO-E Summer Outlook 2020 identifies no major adequacy risk in Europe. The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to ease adequacy this summer even if it is difficult to predict its impact due to high uncertainty.

As important updates on planned outages were announced end of May, notably in France, ENTSO-E has decided to run a dedicated pan-European stress test with the new information, leading to a slight delay in publication of the Summer Outlook. The stress test has in the meantime confirmed that the new information on planned outages did not add any extra adequacy risk in Europe and that the results of the Summer Outlook 2020 remained valid.

Methodology

Methodology for Short-term and Seasonal Adequacy Assessments

The Summer Outlook 2020 uses an upgraded adequacy assessment methodology that is in line with the EU regulation on risk preparedness in the electricity sector.

Read the methodology

Special Reports

Managing critical grid situations - Success and Challenges

The report looks at the consequences on systems and markets in the most impacted countries. If the report shows good cooperation notably through Regional Service Coordinators in Western Europe, the cooperation in South East Europe seems to have suffered from a lack of policy and regulatory alignment.

The report lists a series of recommendations like the enhancement of the methodology used in Outlooks to cover more adequacy risks. Today the methodology is not able to forecast situations like the South East Europe January 2017 cold spell. ENTSO-E is committed to make these improvements in time for the next winter outlook.

On net generating capacity, the decrease of fossil fuel (except gas) and the increase in wind and solar is confirmed compared to last summer.

Read Managing critical grid situations - Success and Challenges​​

Annex - A market analysis of the January 2017 cold spell in Europe

View original news release →

GET THE MOST POWERFUL NEWSLETTER IN BRUSSELS