Summer Outlook Report 2021 and Winter Review 2020/21

Executive Summary

The Summer Outlook 2021 does not identify adequacy risks in general, except for the close monitoring needed in Ireland due to poor reliability of old generation units. The assessment also includes some minor risk in Cyprus and Malta. Non-market resources in Malta contributes substantially to reduce risks to minimum.

The Summer Outlook is accompanied by a retrospect of last winter. Winter 2020-2021 was generally favourable for adequacy as overall temperatures were close to average and supply margins were sufficient to ensure adequacy during cold spells.

ENTSO-E hosted on 2 June a webinar to present the results of the Summer Outlook 2021.

Previous Outlooks

Methodology

Methodology for Short-term and Seasonal Adequacy Assessments

The Summer Outlook 2020 uses an upgraded adequacy assessment methodology that is in line with the EU regulation on risk preparedness in the electricity sector.

Read the methodology

Special Reports

Managing critical grid situations - Success and Challenges

The report looks at the consequences on systems and markets in the most impacted countries. If the report shows good cooperation notably through Regional Service Coordinators in Western Europe, the cooperation in South East Europe seems to have suffered from a lack of policy and regulatory alignment.

The report lists a series of recommendations like the enhancement of the methodology used in Outlooks to cover more adequacy risks. Today the methodology is not able to forecast situations like the South East Europe January 2017 cold spell. ENTSO-E is committed to make these improvements in time for the next winter outlook.

On net generating capacity, the decrease of fossil fuel (except gas) and the increase in wind and solar is confirmed compared to last summer.

Read Managing critical grid situations - Success and Challenges​​

Annex - A market analysis of the January 2017 cold spell in Europe

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