ENTSO-E publishes two pan-European adequacy reports

The ENTSO-E Winter Outlook 2020–2021 analyses the possibility of risks to adequacy in Europe for the upcoming season. Even if the assessment carried out does not show any major adequacy issue in Europe, risks of electricity supply shortage have been identified in Denmark, Finland, France and Malta. Most of the risks can be addressed with available non-market resources. Some risks remain in France and exceptional operational measures might be necessary in the event of a cold spell combined with low generation availability. Adequacy will be closely monitored throughout this winter included through the Regional Security Coordinators.

The Winter Outlook has analysed the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, which is expected to reduce demand throughout Europe. However, the rescheduling of some planned outages of powerplants could in some cases outweigh the positive effect of the decrease in power demand.

Since summer 2020, and in line with the Clean Energy Package, ENTSO-E applies a probabilistic approach to its seasonal adequacy assessments – using a set of possible scenarios for each variable which enables to detect more risks. This is in line with the methodology used in ENTSO-E’s Mid-Term Adequacy Forecast (MAF).

The MAF 2020 assesses the adequacy of the European power system for two target years, 2025 and 2030. The MAF 2020 indicates mostly low risks of inadequacy in the system for both target years with a positive evolution in some zones by 2030.

The inputs used for the MAF’s simulations are aligned with member states’ National Energy and Climate Plans and include data collected from transmission system operators. Next year, the MAF will be enhanced with additional features and methodologies and will evolve to the European Resource Adequacy Assessment (ERAA).

Both Winter Outlook and MAF publications aim to raise stakeholder awareness about possible adequacy risks at different time horizons.

Both publications & related data sets are now available on ENTSO-E’s website.