Mid-term Adequacy Forecast 2018
The new edition of the ENTSO-E's mid term adequacy forecast is now published. A public consultation takes place from 3 October to 9 November 2018.
DownloadsRead the MAF Executive Report (03/10/2018) MAF at a glance (03/10/2018) Methodology and details results (03/10/2018) Appendix on country comments (03/10/2018) Download the MAF Data (03/10/2018)
How we got here
The integration of large amounts of renewable energy sources (RES), the completion of the internal electricity market, as well as new storage technologies, demand side response and evolving policies require revised adequacy assessment methodologies.
Historically, the point with the highest load was chosen to assess generation adequacy, and the same approach was applied to evaluate the associated impacts on security of supply at a pan-European level. However, with the increased penetration of fluctuating green energy sources and the reduction of conventional generation, critical situations may occur in the future at different times than at peak demand.
Over the past decade, ENTSO-E has been continuously improving its methodologies and forecasts to cope with the new challenges. From 2016 the Mid Term Adequacy Forecast replaced the Scenario Outlook & Adequacy Forecast (SO&AF), following a market-based probabilistic modelling approach. Today, the MAF aims in the harmonisation of resource adequacy methodologies across Europe, becoming a reference study among European TSOs and a targeted approach for Seasonal Outlook studies.