Brussels, 14 June 2024 - ENTSO-E publishes its assessment of the seasonal adequacy, looking at the security of electricity supply in Europe for the summer of 2024. The report does not identify any major adequacy risks for the overall European electricity system, yet it highlights some minor risks and a need for monitoring in Cyprus, Malta, and the Republic of Ireland, which experience little to no interconnection.

ENTSO-E releases its “Summer Outlook” report today, providing an adequacy assessment of electricity supply for the summer of 2024. The report is a product of the cooperation between European TSOs carried through ENTSO-E. It demonstrates the added value of a pan-European scope for adequacy analysis while complementing adequacy assessments carried out on a national and regional level.

The study is based on a series of simulations aiming to analyse potential situations in the European electricity system. The analysis is performed on a wide range of scenarios, taking into account uncertain and variable factors such as wind, temperature, or generation unit outages. This approach provides a robust picture of the range of possible events that could occur in the electricity system over the coming months.

The final assessment confirms that resource adequacy to supply European consumers is sufficient to meet the needs of electrical demand during the summer months.

The situation will have to be monitored in the Republic of Ireland, where, due to an ageing powerplant fleet, some adequacy risks have been identified in cases of unplanned outages during periods of low wind generation. However, the availability of non-market resources significantly alleviates the risk. In addition, residual risks are identified in Malta and Cyprus in an event of high unplanned outages and unfavourable weather conditions when demand is high and renewable energy generation is low.

This year, the quality of the data presented in the “Summer Outlook” report was enhanced with two major methodological improvements. Firstly, the use of a new climatic database prepared in cooperation with the Copernicus Climate Change Service enhances the precision of the analysis. Secondly, the introduction of a new Pan-European Market Modelling Database led to improved data reliability, and therefore more accurate predictive modelling.  

Read the Summer Outlook report 2024 here.
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