The ENTSO-E Winter Outlook 2023-2024 highlights an improved adequacy outlook compared with 2022-2023 with limited electricity supply risks in remote areas. European TSOs continue to monitor the adequacy situation throughout the winter period.
BRUSSELS, 16 NOVEMBER 2023 - The ENTSO-E Winter Outlook 2023-2024 has been published today. The report offers an overview of the security of the electricity supply across Europe for the 2023-24 winter season, as well as a retrospective on summer 2023. Despite some traces of risks, the adequacy picture is more optimistic than last year’s outlook. All identified risks to the energy supply during the upcoming season are driven by weather conditions.
In Ireland and Northern Ireland, the availability of aging gas power plants remains the main challenge. Adequacy situation will depend on wind generation availability in case there would be many unplanned outages of those units. Risks are also observed in Malta and Cyprus, where limited or no interconnection with continental power system exists.
The EU’s gas storage is currently filled to almost 100 percent of their capacity across Europe (GIE Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory), ensuring preparedness and confidence in the security of supply for the winter ahead. Critical Gas Volume (CGV) decreased by approximately 10 percent compared to last winter. These conditions combined with a significant expansion of the renewable generation fleet, as well as a lower number of planned outages compared with last winter, create a favourable environment for adequacy and a lower reliance on gas.
The ENTSO-E Winter Outlook also reports the prospects for the coming winter in the Ukrainian and Moldovan power systems as well as additional efforts taken by Ukrenergo and Moldelectrica, to ensure stability of the power system after synchronisation with the Continental European power system in March 2022. Ukrenergo and Moldelectrica continue working closely with ENTSO-E and its Members towards further integration. Ukrenergo and Moldelectrica, have now been welcomed by ENTSO-E as Observer Members.
This winter, ENTSO-E will continue ensuring a strong cross-border cooperation and close coordination at all levels to safeguard the European power system balance between supply and demand.
ENTSO-E members represent 39 Electricity Transmission System Operators (TSOs) responsible for the bulk transmission of electric power on the main high voltage electric networks. TSOs provide grid access to the electricity market players (i.e. generating companies, traders, suppliers, distributors and directly connected customers) according to non-discriminatory and transparent rules. In order to ensure the security of supply, they also guarantee the safe operation and maintenance of the system. In many countries, TSOs are in charge of the development of the grid infrastructure too.