• Results out for public consultation until 13 January 2020
• Stakeholder workshop organised on 4 December
• Low-carbon scenario updated for 2025
ENTSO-E Mid-term Adequacy Forecast (MAF) 2019 results show low risk to the adequacy – that is the balance between generation and demand – of the Pan-European power system for the time horizons of 2021 and 2025. However, some islands are more vulnerable to adequacy risks, due to lack of interconnections.
The MAF looks at interdependencies between supply, demand, storage, climatic conditions and interconnection capacities. It underlines the importance of cross-border cooperation in fostering adequacy throughout the interconnected pan-European power system.
The MAF uses sophisticated mathematical models to assess pan-European electricity security of supply and this year the granularity and quality of data was further improved. Notably, by using unit by unit information on thermal generation, an improved hydrological database and a new methodology for calculating demand time-series.
As in the previous edition, MAF 2019 includes a ‘low-carbon’ scenario considering the impact by 2025 of shutting down coal generation units. Results for the low-carbon sensitivity show increased risks in some market zones, directly or indirectly affected by the decommissioning. This highlights the need for, among others, the development of flexibility sources, such as demand side response, storage, interconnections as well as increased and smarter integration of renewable and distributed energy sources.
The MAF is one of ENTSO-E’s legal mandates and part of the wider package of the ENTSO-E 10-year network development plan (TYNDP). The results of the MAF 2019 are out for public consultation until 13 January 2020. A public workshop to discuss the results is organised on 4 December.
Frequently asked questions
What will be the impact of the Clean Energy Package on the MAF?
The legislative package Clean Energy for all Europeans, specifically Regulation 2019/943 of 5 June 2019 on the internal market for electricity, has placed resource adequacy in a central position in European energy policy. Under this regulation (Article 23), European resource adequacy assessments are required to consider, among others, the economic viability of generation assets, capacity mechanisms, increased temporal granularity and sensitivities. This will see future pan-European and Regional adequacy assessments evolve and gradually in the next years lead to the replacement of the MAF by the European Resource Adequacy Assessment (ERAA).
What are the different security of supply analysis?
Adequacy is assessed at a national, regional and pan-European levelAt pan-European level, resource adequacy is assessed in ENTSO-E, involving the collaborative efforts of TSOs across Europe. The MAF looks at adequacy from a timeframe spanning from one to ten years. The TYNDP looks at system needs up to 2040. ENTSO-E also produces Seasonal Outlooks which study adequacy situation ahead of every winter and summer. Adequacy is in addition studied at regional level by Regional Security Coordinators but closer to real time operations. All the regional and pan-European assessments are based and are complementing national analysis performed by the TSOs.