ENTSO-EERAA 2021Reports & Results
Reports
ERAA 2021: Executive Report
The ERAA 2021 is divided into eight documents (Executive Report and Annexes) to facilitate readers in identifying relevant information. The executive report describes the ERAA 2021 motivation followed by the adequacy results for the national estimate scenarios and central reference scenarios:
- National Estimate for target year (TY) 2025 and TY 2030, as collected from TSOs;
- Central Economic Viability Assessment (EVA) without Capacity Mechanism (CM) for TY 2025: based on “National Estimate” scenario and updated through the application of an EVA without CM;
- Central EVA with CM for TY 2025: based on “National Estimate” scenario, and updated through the application of an EVA with CM;
- National Estimate with Low Thermal Capacity for TY 2025 & TY 2030, scenario with reduced thermal capacity collected from transmission system operators (TSOs).
Annex 1: Assumptions
Presentation of the ERAA 2021 scenarios and assumptions.
Download (PDF, 3.3 MB)
Annex 2: Detailed Results
Presentation of the ERAA 2021 detailed results.
Download (PDF, 1.8 MB)
Annex 3: Methodology
Description of the main ERAA 2021 methodology, consisting of:
- Probabilistic methodology for assessing adequacy;
- Methodology of the EVA;
- Introduction to methodologies used to prepare demand and climate datasets;
- Methodological improvement targets.
Annex 4: Flow Based Coupling
Proof of concept study focusing on the implementation of FBMC on the scenario “EVA without CM” for TY 2025.
Download (PDF, 1.6 MB)
Annex 5: Country Comments
Voluntary-based specific comments provided by TSOs on the ERAA 2021 input data and results.
Download (PDF, 1.0 MB)
Annex 6: Results Benchmarking
Listing the results of the reference tool besides the results of other tools on the reference scenarios, aiming to offer an understanding of the uncertainty of the results.
Download (PDF, 2.3 MB)
Annex 7: Definitions and Glossary
Download (PDF, 600 KB)
Outputs
EVA results under Central scenario without Capacity Mechanism
The visual shows the installed capacities decommissioned per technology and bidding zone following the EVA step in the Central scenario without Capacity Mechanism.
EVA results under Central scenario with Capacity Mechanism
The visual shows the installed capacity change per bidding zone of the EVA steps in the Central scenario with Capacity Mechanism compared to the Central scenario without Capacity Mechanism.
Results Benchmarking “National Estimates”
This visual shows the LOLE and ENS result differences between various tools compared to the reference tool.
Results Benchmarking “National Estimates with Low Thermal”
This visual shows the LOLE and ENS result differences between various tools compared to the reference tool.
Results Benchmarking “Central without CM”
This visual shows the LOLE and ENS result differences between various tools compared to the reference tool.
Results Benchmarking “Central with CM”
This visual shows the LOLE and ENS result differences between various tools compared to the reference tool.
Methodologies
- Regulation (EU) 2019/943 of the European Parliament and of the Council (PDF)
- Methodology for the European resource adequacy assessment (PDF)
- Methodology for calculating the value of lost load, the cost of new entry for generation or demand response, and the reliability standard (PDF)
- Demand Forecasting Methodology (PDF)
- Hydro modelling description (PDF)
Disclaimer
ENTSO-E and the participating TSOs have followed accepted industry practice in the collection and analysis of available data. While all reasonable care has been taken in the preparation of this data, ENTSO-E and the TSOs are not responsible for any loss that may be attributed to the use of this information. The interested parties should not solely rely upon data and information contained in this report in taking business decisions. Information in this document does not amount to a recommendation in respect of any possible investment. This document does not intend to contain all the information that a prospective investor or market participant may need. ENTSO-E emphasises that ENTSO-E and the TSOs involved in this study are not responsible in the event that the hypotheses presented in this report or the estimations based on these hypotheses are not realised in the future.