Mid Term Adequacy Forecast 2019

Mid-term Adequacy Forecast 2019

The Mid-term Adequacy Forecast (MAF) is a pan-European monitoring assessment of power system resource adequacy spanning over the timeframe from 1 – 10 years ahead. It is based upon a state-of-the-art probabilistic analysis, aiming to provide stakeholders with comprehensive support to take qualified decisions.

Input Data

The MAF study is built on several datasets, whereas a part of these is made available for the public. These datasets and detailed descriptions of preprocessed inputs can be accessed below.

MAF dataset

PECD data (pending publication)

Hydro modelling description

Demand methodology

PECD data description (pending publication)

How we got here

The integration of large amounts of renewable energy sources (RES), the completion of the internal electricity market, as well as new storage technologies, demand side response and evolving policies require revised adequacy assessment methodologies.

Historically, the point with the highest load was chosen to assess generation adequacy, and the same approach was applied to evaluate the associated impacts on security of supply at a pan-European level. However, with the increased penetration of fluctuating green energy sources and the reduction of conventional generation, critical situations may occur in the future at different times than at peak demand.

Over the past decade, ENTSO-E has been continuously improving its methodologies and forecasts to cope with the new challenges. From 2016 the Mid Term Adequacy Forecast replaced the Scenario Outlook & Adequacy Forecast (SO&AF), following a market-based probabilistic modelling approach. Today, the MAF aims in the harmonisation of resource adequacy methodologies across Europe, becoming a reference study among European TSOs and a targeted approach for Seasonal Outlook studies.