Building on the conclusions of the 2021 report “Long term scenarios and frequency stability”, ENTSO-E is now working on a follow-up project named “Project Inertia phase II”. The activity provides a more in-depth analysis of the impact of system splits on the future “low inertia” configuration of the Continental Europe (CE) Synchronous Area (SA). The Project has updated and improved the existing methodology from 2021, assessing system split cases based on pan-European market studies for long-term future scenarios (TYNDP 2022 scenarios).

In this first report (concluding the first milestone of the Project), the study reviews a significant number of combinations of cases of system split in the CE synchronous area, separating the interconnected system into two parts, with similar assumptions and methodology to those of phase 1 of the Project Inertia.

The updated results confirm the trends identified in the previous report “Frequency stability in long-term scenarios and relevant requirements”. Splits, where at least one island exceeds the Rate of Change of Frequency (RoCoF) limit of 1 Hz/s and splits where both islands exceed this threshold, are identified in large numbers and with a visible increase from 2030 to 2040. This demonstrates the progressive decline in the system resilience against system splits, if no action is taken.

Read the report here.