Will demand for power in Europe be covered in the next decade? What is the impact of climate on our power system? Why interdependency between European countries is essential in assessing security of supply? Why coordination at all levels is necessary?
These are questions addressed in the new edition of ENTSO-E’s Midterm Adequacy Forecast: a state-of-the-art pan-European mathematical analysis of security of electricity supply up to 2020 and 2025.
The 2017 edition has seen an upgrade in the methodology and in the analysis around a series of key factors. More climate years have been considered to better assess the risks represented by severe weather conditions. The impact of mothballing of conventional plants, the role of interconnection as well as the interdependence of European countries in relation to flexibility have also been more closely studied.
‘When it comes to electricity, European countries are highly interdependent. Meaning that what happens in a country impacts the other. Negatively or positively. For example, countries can support each other during periods of high demand because they have different peak times, different time scales. This should systematically be taken into account when assessing security of supply’, comments Laurent Schmitt, ENTSO-E’s Secretary General.
The MAF illustrates again the potential of coordination among network operators, but also beyond. ‘On the one hand, you have highly interdependent power systems. On the other, important policies such as renewables support schemes and energy mix that are purely national. The two elements put together are bound to create tensions. It is evident that more coordination of policies & regulation is needed’, concludes Laurent Schmitt.
The MAF is out for public consultation until 10 November. The scenarios used for the MAF are part of a consistent set developed with stakeholders and, for the first time, with ENTSOG. This common scenario set will also be used for the long term grid planning studies to be issued by the ENTSOs next year. A consultation on these scenarios will be running in parallel to the MAF’s.