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Frequently Asked Questions

1. What scenarios are considered in the ERAA 2022?

The ERAA 2022 analyses the “central reference scenario without capacity mechanism” as described in the ERAA methodology. A scenario is the outcome of a specific set of assumptions and data, applied to a target year, and run through a set of models (methodologies) to give a picture of the future. By using these different scenarios, we can gauge the impact of certain policy, regulatory or economic measures (e.g. capacity mechanisms), and compare results found through different methodologies.

Central Scenario
Scenario NameWithout Capacity Mechanisms
Target Years2024 up to 20302025, 2027 & 2030

The ERAA builds on the scenarios set out in the latest available Member States’ National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) with an effort to comply with FF55 & RePowerEU directives.

ERAA 2022 does not include a Central Reference Scenario With CM. Regrettably, the latter could not be incorporated in the report due to increased computational complexity and important time constraints. ERAA is still in the implementation phase and ENTSO-E is committed in its continued efforts to deliver both central reference scenarios in future editions.

2. How have stakeholders contributed to the ERAA 2022?

ENTSO-E has sought to involve a wide range of stakeholders from the start of the ERAA 2022 process, with substantial consultation during the development of our underlying methodologies. The Electricity Coordination Group, comprising experts from EU Member States, was further instrumental to informing the production of the ERAA. They specifically advised on assumptions, fed back on data inputs and commented on preliminary results.

ENTSO-E gave stakeholders the opportunity to provide feedback for the next ERAA reports during the public consultation on the ERAA 2022 (see stakeholders interactions page).

3. What are the key take-aways of the ERAA 2022?

The results of the without capacity mechanism scenario show high volumes of fossil-fuelled capacity at risk of becoming economically non-viable in the mid-term. In that context, the right incentives and/or targeted intervention will be needed to avoid adequacy risks, especially in the countries of central Europe.

It will be necessary to implement new flexibility tools that facilitate the management of demand (ramps and peaks). In addition, capacity that can quickly respond to sudden variation of demand and supply is needed, such as meeting demand spikes in the evening while decreasing PV supply.

Furthermore, without intervention (see Target Year 2025), risks of system inadequacy could increase significantly in more than a dozen markets.

Adequacy issues in one country are highly dependent on assumptions in neighbouring countries – and, reciprocally, that any capacity investment in one country can greatly influence its neighbours. This highlights the importance of regional coordination in decision-making.