Winter Outlook 2023-2024
Summer Review 2023
Executive Summary
ENTSO-E Winter Outlook 2023-2024: improved adequacy outlook compared with 2022-2023 with limited electricity supply risks in remote areas. European TSOs continue to monitor the adequacy situation throughout the winter period.
Only some risks of electricity supply in remote areas including Ireland, Northern Ireland, Malta and Cyprus. All the risks identified for the next winter season are driven by weather conditions in combination with other adverse factors. Dedicated non-market resources would help to alleviate those risks in Ireland and Malta.
Size / Format | |
---|---|
Report - Winter Outlook 2023-2024 | 11 MB / pdf |
Country comments - Winter Outlook 2023-2024 | 4 MB / pdf |
Webinar presentation | 2.4 MB / pdf |
Demand WOR 2023-2024 | 76 MB / xls |
Demand WOR 2023-2024 - energy savings | 90 MB / xls |
Supply WOR 2023-2024 | 165 KB / xls |
Hydro WOR 2023-2024 | 68 MB / zip |
PECD Wind Onshore 2023, edition 2022.3 | 583,5 MB / xls |
PECD LF Solar PV 2023, edition 2022.3 | 359,6 MB / xls |
PECD Wind Offshore 2023, edition 2022.3 | 172,5 MB / xls |
PECD LF Solar PV 2022, edition 2022.3 | 360 MB / xls |
Transfer Capacities WOR 2023-2024 Reference Scenarios | 2,8 MB / xls |
Webinar Recording
Your Questions, Our Answers
What is the Winter Outlook?
ENTSO-E’s Seasonal Outlooks investigate at pan-European level the security of electricity supply ahead of each winter and summer period. They are released twice a year with a Summer Outlook in June and a Winter Outlook in December. The role of the Outlooks is to identify when and where system adequacy – the balance between supply and demand for electricity – is at risk. Outlooks are not forecasts of the future. Rather, they identify potential vulnerabilities for the upcoming season which can be addressed proactively with preparation or mitigation measures.
The Outlooks are the product of cooperation between 40 European electricity TSOs. Because of their pan-European scope, the Outlooks complement the analysis carried out in national and regional assessments, which provide a more detailed picture of adequacy at local level. They promote cooperation across Europe and between regional and national stakeholders.
Performing the Seasonal Outlooks (Seasonal Adequacy Assessments) is one of ENTSO-E’s legal mandates as specified in the Clean Energy Package and as defined in Article 9 of the Risk Preparedness Regulation (Regulation (EU) 2019/941). ENTSO-E performs this assessment to inform national authorities, TSOs and relevant stakeholders of the potential risks related to the security of electricity supply in the coming season. The Seasonal Outlooks reflect the implementation of the methodology as developed by ENTSO-E as per Article 8 of the Risk Preparedness Regulation and as approved by ACER on 6 March 2020. Earlier Seasonal Outlooks (published before 2020) follow another deterministic approach.Does the Winter Outlook consider the probability and impact of a cold spell?
The Winter Outlook considers multiple possibilities regarding weather and temperature, which can impact generation (e.g. more or less wind) and consumption of electricity (e.g. heating). Our simulations are performed for multiple so-called ‘climate years’. These cover 34 past winter patterns to capture sufficient spread of possible winter scenarios. In these historical climate data, the temperatures were detrended to account for climate change. Also, multiple hydro samples are used, from a wet to a very dry season. This allows us to take into consideration a variety of weather conditions, including cold spells. The results presented in the Winter Outlook are an average of many different possible weather conditions.
How does the Winter Outlook consider gas fuel supply uncertainty?
ENTSO-E assesses European critical dependency on gas supply by identifying the Critical Gas Volume (CGV). It is assessed considering various climatic patterns. CGV refers to the lowest volumes of gas absolutely needed for electricity generation using all market resources even in the most adverse combination of climate conditions and outages. With this analysis, ENTSO-E estimates how much gas may be needed to maintain electricity adequacy in Europe and for each week of the coming winter. Gas is always considered last in the merit order both in the reference scenario and in the sensitivities assessed. In a market context this means gas generation is the price setter in the wholesale market, but what is most important for an adequacy analysis this means the analysis inherently assumes all other resources are deployed first in the market before calling on gas power generation.
The findings show that gas remains important to maintain adequacy of the power system in Europe this winter and in the absence of new measures and investments also in coming years. The reliance on gas generation in Europe has decreased by 10% compared with last winter.How are ENTSO-E neighbouring countries considered in the Seasonal Outlook?
The interconnected system is a key resource for wider system adequacy. ENTSO-E’s Seasonal Outlook gives results for all ENTSO-E member systems. Data inputs and assumptions from neighbouring interconnected countries are also integrated into the modelling. As in every Outlook, data is collected for Turkey and included in the assessment as a market zone. The system of Great Britain is strongly interconnected in the North Sea region and a dedicated collaboration is set up with National Grid ESO to exchange data. Other neighbouring systems are modelled in a simplified manner by fixed flows or assuming zero flows for the purpose of identifying adequacy risks.
Ukraine and Moldova provided their national perspective on the situation in their power system.
Previous Outlooks
2023 Summer Outlook Report and Winter Review 2022-2023
- Get the report pdf
- Country Comments pdf
- Webinar presentation pdf
- Demand SOR 2023 xls
- Supply SOR 2023 xls
- Hydro SOR 2023 zip
- PECD Wind Onshore 2023, edition 2022.3 xls
- PECD LF Solar PV 2023, edition 2022.3 xls
- PECD Wind Offshore 2023, edition 2022.3 xls
- Supply CSP noStorage 2023, edition 2022.3 xls
- Transfer Capacities SOR 2023 Reference Scenarios xls
2022 Summer Outlook Report and Winter Review 2021-2022
2021 Summer Outlook Report and Winter Review 2020-2021
2020 Summer Outlook Report and Winter Review 2019-2020
- 2019 Summer Outlook Report and Winter Review pdf
- 2019 Input dataset Summer xls
- 2018 Summer Outlook Report and Winter Review pdf
- 2018 Input dataset Summer xls
- 2017 Summer Outlook Report and Winter Review pdf
- 2017 Input dataset Summer xls
- 2016 Summer Outlook Report and Winter Review pdf
- 2015 Summer Outlook Report and Winter Review pdf
- 2014 Summer Outlook Report and Winter Review pdf
- 2013 Summer Outlook Report and Winter Review pdf
- 2012 Summer Outlook Report and Winter Review pdf
- 2011 Summer Outlook Report and Winter Review pdf
- 2010 Summer Outlook Report and Winter Review pdf
- 2009 Summer Outlook Report and Winter Review pdf
2022/23 Winter Outlook Report and Summer Review 2022
- Get the report 9,2 MB pdf
- Country Comments 4,7 MB pdf
- Demand WO2022-2023, Peak Reduction 78,4 MB / xls
- Demand WO2022-2023, Normal Demand 78,6 MB / xls
- Hydro WO2022-2023 8,2 MB / zip
- PECD CSP WO2022-2023, edition 2022.3 37,6 MB / zip
- PECD PV WO2022-2023, edition 2022.3 304,4 MB / zip
- PECD Offshore Wind WO2022-2023 580,9 MB / zip
- Supply WO2022-2023 Reference Scenario 140 KB / xls
- Transfer Capacities WO2022 Reference Scenarios 4,6 MB / xls
- Winter Outlook 2022-2023 Sensitivity dataset 1,6 MB / zip
- Public webinar presentation (1/12/2022) 3,8 MB / pdf
- Early insights of Winter Outlook Report 2022-2023
2021/22 Winter Outlook Report and Summer Review 2021
2020/21 Winter Outlook Report and Summer Review 2020
- Summer Outlook Report 2020 and Winter Review pdf
- Winter Outlook Report 2020/21 Country comments pdf
- Supply related data - NGCs, outages, etc xls
- PECD Wind Offshore zip
- PECD Wind Onshore zip
- PECD Solar zip
- Hydro modelling data zip
- Demand dataset xls
- Availability Climate Dependent Other NonRES xls
- Transfer Capacities xls
- 2019/20 Winter Outlook Report and Summer Review 2019 pdf
- 2019/20 Input dataset Winter xls
- 2018/19 Winter Outlook Report and Summer Review 2018 pdf
- 2018/19 Input dataset Winter xls
- 2017/18 Winter Outlook Report and Summer Review 2017 pdf
- 2017/18 Input dataset Winter xls
- 2016/17 Winter Outlook Report and Summer Review 2016 pdf
- 2016/17 Input dataset Winter xls
- 2015/16 Winter Outlook Report and Summer Review 2015 pdf
- 2015/16 Input dataset Winter xls
- 2014/15 Winter Outlook Report and Summer Review 2014 pdf
- 2013/14 Winter Outlook Report and Summer Review pdf
- 2012/13 Winter Outlook Report and Summer Review pdf
- 2011/12 Winter Outlook Report and Summer Review pdf
- 2010/11 Winter Outlook Report and Summer Review pdf
- 2009/10 Winter Outlook Report and Summer Review pdf
Methodology
Methodology for Short-term and Seasonal Adequacy Assessments
The Summer Outlook 2020 uses an upgraded adequacy assessment methodology that is in line with the EU regulation on risk preparedness in the electricity sector.
Special Reports
Managing critical grid situations - Success and Challenges
The report looks at the consequences on systems and markets in the most impacted countries. If the report shows good cooperation notably through Regional Service Coordinators in Western Europe, the cooperation in South East Europe seems to have suffered from a lack of policy and regulatory alignment.
The report lists a series of recommendations like the enhancement of the methodology used in Outlooks to cover more adequacy risks. Today the methodology is not able to forecast situations like the South East Europe January 2017 cold spell. ENTSO-E is committed to make these improvements in time for the next winter outlook.
On net generating capacity, the decrease of fossil fuel (except gas) and the increase in wind and solar is confirmed compared to last summer.
Read Managing critical grid situations - Success and Challenges
Annex - A market analysis of the January 2017 cold spell in Europe