With the integration of Europe’s electricity markets, integration of large quantities of renewable capacity and shifting demand patterns, resource adequacy will be a major focus for decades to come. The ERAA will ensure decision makers have the best available information on how best to approach these challenges, and, although the report itself will not recommend specific actions, its data will inform decisions regarding CMs and other interventions.
The ERAA 2021 was the first step towards this objective. It introduced pioneering methodologies and tools which analyse future adequacy in an unprecedented combination of scope and detail and can be referred to when considering the overall direction of Europe’s electricity grids.
The stepwise approach endorsed by ACER on 2 October 2020 is the basis for the evolution and implementation of ERAA. Of particular focus will be the further development of the EVA and FB analysis, which together should add significant robustness to the findings of the report. Already, hundreds of man-hours and thousands of computing hours have been spent towards the development of these tools.
What are the upcoming challenges and future steps for resource adequacy assessments as required under the CEP?
The CEP requires the introduction of additional methodologies and features, such as an EVA, scenarios with CMs, the impact of climate change on input data, and FB representation of the grid, thus introducing significant challenges and improvements for pan-European and regional adequacy assessments.
Alongside the delivery of ERAA 2021, ENTSO-E delivered an implementation roadmap with clear steps. This roadmap is indicative and will be updated at least on a yearly basis, considering the best available approaches and know-how. It outlines how topics such as the role of electrolysers and DSR, alongside latest policy developments will be factored into ERAA. Regarding policy developments, it is important to stress that ongoing negotiations on the EU’s Fit for 55 Package will lead to changes in Europe’s climate and energy objectives for 2030 that have to be translated to national estimates – changes which will be factored into future editions.
In line with the methodology, ENTSO-E plans for a full implementation by end 2023, namely with the ERAA 2024, which will start in Autumn 2023. Figure 1 shows the latest version of the roadmap (November 2021 update).
1: Compared to the 10 December 2020 version published on ENTSO-E’s website