ERAA 2021 assesses the target years 2025 and 2030. Expected reductions in coal and nuclear capacity over the coming years make Target Year (TY) 2025 a pivotal year to assess their impact on system adequacy. TY2030 gives a longer-term perspective, with a 10-year horizon.
The ERAA report considers several different scenarios. A scenario is the outcome of a specific set of assumptions and data, applied to a target year, and run through a set of models (methodologies) to give a picture of the future. By using these different scenarios, we can gauge the impact of certain policy, regulatory or economic measures (e.g. capacity mechanisms), and compare results found through different methodologies. The ERAA has four reference scenarios for 2025, and two for 2030: