Any plan for the future needs to first take a glimpse into the future. Tomorrow has its uncertainties, but a robust planning exercise has no choice but to face the challenge of exploring possible futures. ENTSO-E’s scenarios describe possible future storylines based on economic conditions, technical progress, and political will.
The future is shaped by all of us, and as such also the design of energy scenarios is an activity in which ENTSO-E counts on the views of a broad spectrum of stakeholders. These future storylines may be challenging or pessimistic, but all need to pass the test of being a realistic view of the future worth to analyze in planning studies, rather than being a future as we would like it to be.
These storyline are translated by modelling experts to data requirements and methodologies. A lot of data is captured from external studies, stakeholder assumptions, as well as national and pan-European studies. Detailed calculations result in installed capacities per country per technology, as well as the share some technologies have in the overall energy mix.
A well balanced set of diverse scenarios are key to explore which projects are valuable for the future, and to benchmark all of them in the CBA analysis.
How TYNDP scenarios are build?
How are the scenarios used?
In the grid planning exercise, scenario development represents the first step of the process. As such the scenarios set the frame on which market and network studies are done and projects are assessed.
For more insight on the planning please see the TYNDP planning process webpage.